The individual tour stop frequency model predicts the number of stops for each person by primary tour purpose (work, school, university, shopping, escorting, maintenance, discretionary, visiting, and eating). The number of stops is predicted by tour direction - outbound (stops made between home and the primary destination) versus inbound (stops made on the way back home). Thus the models have 16 alternatives: the number of inbound stops (0 through 3) combined with the number of outbound stops (0 through 3). The base alternative for calibrating the individual tour stop frequency model is the 0 outbound and 0 inbound stops alternative. Several runs through the model were done to achieve satisfactory levels of calibration. Table 3-13a shows the target intermediate stop frequency shares for each tour purpose, while Table 3-13b shows the model estimated tour stop frequency probabilities by tour purpose. The model matches the observed stop frequency shares reasonably close.
Table 3-13a. Survey Tour Stop Frequency by Tour Purpose
| Stop Frequency | Work | University | School | Escort | Shop | Maintenance | Social/Eating Out | Discretionary | Work-Based |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 outbound, 0 inbound | 54.1% | 64.5% | 73.1% | 70.7% | 43.4% | 51.8% | 69.2% | 65.1% | 77.8% |
| 0 outbound, 1 inbound | 14.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 16.7% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 8.1% |
| 0 outbound, 2 inbound | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| 0 outbound, 3 inbound | 3.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| 1 outbound, 0 inbound | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 16.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| 1 outbound, 1 inbound | 5.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| 1 outbound, 2 inbound | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 outbound, 3 inbound | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 2 outbound, 0 inbound | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 2 outbound, 1 inbound | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 2 outbound, 2 inbound | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 2 outbound, 3 inbound | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 3 outbound, 0 inbound | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 outbound, 1 inbound | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 outbound, 2 inbound | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 3 outbound, 3 inbound | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Table 3-13b. Model Tour Stop Frequency by Tour Purpose
| Stop Frequency | Work | University | School | Escort | Shop | Maintenance | Social/Eating Out | Discretionary | Work-Based |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 outbound, 0 inbound | 53.3% | 69.6% | 73.2% | 71.8% | 43.6% | 51.2% | 69.6% | 65.8% | 77.7% |
| 0 outbound, 1 inbound | 15.5% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 16.4% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 8.8% |
| 0 outbound, 2 inbound | 4.9% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| 0 outbound, 3 inbound | 3.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 outbound, 0 inbound | 7.3% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 16.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.3% |
| 1 outbound, 1 inbound | 5.2% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| 1 outbound, 2 inbound | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 outbound, 3 inbound | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 2 outbound, 0 inbound | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| 2 outbound, 1 inbound | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 outbound, 2 inbound | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 outbound, 3 inbound | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 3 outbound, 0 inbound | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 3 outbound, 1 inbound | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 3 outbound, 2 inbound | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 outbound, 3 inbound | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
This model predicts the location of each intermediate stop (each location other than the primary destination) on the tour. The total number of stops is determined by the stop frequency model described above. The ARC stop location model was calibrated to match the target distributions. The stop location choice is determined based on deviation from the shortest path to the primary destination from the current origin. This technique, also known as “rubber-banding” relies on out-of-direction distance to determine the stop location. The calibration of the stop location choice model involves generating the out-of-direction distance distributions for the stops from the survey and comparing them with the observed data. The calibration process is similar to the process described for the tour destination choice model - the distance terms are adjusted using regression based adjustments until the shape of the observed curves and estimated curves converge. Bin specific adjustments were also incorporated to get the shape correct.
The tour mode choice model uses a nested logit model to predict the tour mode for each tour. Tour mode share summaries were prepared by tour purpose and auto sufficiency. The data for the calibration of trip and tour mode choice uses the 2011 Household Travel Survey (HTS) as the primary source for the tour mode share information. The travel survey is a rich source of tour level information. However, the survey did not have sufficient coverage for transit trips - hence the 2010 Transit On-Board Survey data, expanded to 2015 conditions, was used to augment the transit mode choice information. The transit survey is a trip intercept survey that gives detailed information about transit trips. The following steps were used to process the transit trip data into tour data:
Summaries of tour mode choice from the household survey were prepared by tour purpose and auto sufficiency. Transit trips by tour purpose and auto sufficiency were summarized from the on-board survey.
The summaries were inspected for logical consistency. The following updates were made to the summaries:
Next, the average number of trips per tour was derived for each access mode (walk access, park and ride, and kiss and ride) and tour purpose using the household survey. The implied number of transit tours from the on-board survey could be derived in a straightforward manner by dividing the total transit trips by the 2011 HTS average trips per tour, by purpose and mode. This approach ensures that the estimate of trips per tour is completely consistent with the home interview survey and that the transit tour targets are consistent with the transit trip targets observed in the on-board survey.
Further, the totals derived in step 3 were split into the different auto sufficiency segments based on the observed percentage of transit trips by tour purpose, auto sufficiency and access mode as implied by the on-board survey.
Finally, the number of transit tours by transit access mode and auto sufficiency was held constant, and total tours for other modes were scaled to match the total number of tours generated in the model by tour purpose and auto sufficiency. This ensures that the total transit trips, which are based upon observed on-board survey data expanded to transit boardings, will be matched well when the model is applied.
The tour mode choice model has all of the detailed modes represented in the trip mode choice model described below. The base modes include Drive Alone, Shared Ride 2 persons, Shared Ride 3+ persons, Bike, Walk, Walk-Transit, Park-and-Ride Transit, and Kiss-and-Ride Transit. Each auto mode includes both free and pay sub-modes, and each transit mode includes both an all-transit option and a premium-only sub-mode option. However, the sub-modes are not considered in later models; in effect, even though utilities are being calculated for each sub-mode, only the base modes described above influence later choices such as stop location and trip mode. The calibration process therefore focuses on matching the base modes by tour purpose and auto sufficiency. The sub-mode constants (such as the MARTA rail constant that measures the non-included attributes of MARTA rail compared to local bus) are introduced in tour mode choice, but held consistent from their calibrated trip mode choice value. That is, since tour mode choice is applied to round-trip travel characteristics, the sub-mode constants are doubled in terms of equivalent in-vehicle time minutes. This ensures consistent elasticities in tour mode choice and trip mode choice, and provides sensitivity in sub-mode options in tour mode choice, as well as time-of-day choice and destination choice through tour mode choice logsums. For the zero auto households market, Shared Ride 2 persons mode is used as the base category. In all other cases except for joint tours, the drive alone mode was held as the base category. For joint tours the Shared Ride 2 persons mode is fixed as the base category for all auto sufficiency markets as drive alone is not available by default. Tour mode choice was also calibrated to ensure that the transit use in individuals in households with different income levels match the observed transit use.
The results of the calibration are shown in Tables 3-14a through 3-14n.
Table 3-14a. Tour Mode Choice - Target Mode Shares of Work Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 108,286 | 1,226,167 | 1,334,453 | 0% | 44% | 74% | 68% |
| Shared 2 | 14,466 | 84,622 | 263,330 | 362,418 | 30% | 34% | 16% | 19% |
| Shared 3+ | 3,782 | 21,707 | 121,993 | 147,482 | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% |
| Walk | 4,352 | 4,636 | 6,864 | 15,852 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Bike | 0 | 2,368 | 10,126 | 12,494 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Walk All Transit | 20,999 | 17,259 | 8,090 | 46,347 | 43% | 7% | 0% | 2% |
| Walk Premium Only | 3,271 | 3,908 | 3,647 | 10,826 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 436 | 1259 | 1,695 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 2,590 | 11,082 | 13,672 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| KNR All Transit | 830 | 1,219 | 757 | 2,806 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 876 | 1,742 | 1,208 | 3,826 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 48,576 | 248,772 | 1,654,523 | 1,951,871 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 24,270 | 21,166 | 11,737 | 57,173 | 93% | 78% | 45% | 72% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 3,026 | 12,341 | 15,367 | 0% | 11% | 47% | 19% |
| KNR-Transit | 1,706 | 2,961 | 1,965 | 6,632 | 7% | 11% | 8% | 8% |
| Premium Transit | 4,147 | 8,240 | 15,937 | 28,323 | 16% | 30% | 61% | 36% |
Table 3-14b. Tour Mode Choice- Estimated Mode Shares of Work Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 108,139 | 1,226,510 | 1,334,649 | 0% | 43% | 74% | 68% |
| Shared 2 | 14,632 | 84,284 | 262,990 | 361,906 | 30% | 34% | 16% | 19% |
| Shared 3+ | 3,670 | 21,776 | 121,764 | 147,210 | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% |
| Walk | 4,113 | 4,182 | 6,673 | 14,968 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Bike | 0 | 2,382 | 9,842 | 12,224 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Walk All Transit | 21,249 | 17,611 | 8,009 | 46,869 | 44% | 7% | 0% | 2% |
| Walk Premium Only | 3,145 | 4,139 | 4,068 | 11,352 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 506 | 1450 | 1,956 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 2,726 | 10,936 | 13,662 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| KNR All Transit | 913 | 1,252 | 1,071 | 3,236 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 854 | 1,775 | 1,210 | 3,839 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 48,576 | 248,772 | 1,654,523 | 1,951,871 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 24,394 | 21,750 | 12,077 | 58,221 | 93% | 78% | 45% | 72% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 3,232 | 12,386 | 15,618 | 0% | 12% | 46% | 19% |
| KNR-Transit | 1,767 | 3,027 | 2,281 | 7,075 | 7% | 11% | 9% | 9% |
| Premium Transit | 3,999 | 8,640 | 16,214 | 28,853 | 15% | 31% | 61% | 36% |
Table 3-14c. Tour Mode Choice - Target Mode Shares of University Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 3,870 | 75,476 | 79,347 | 0% | 38% | 68% | 58% |
| Shared 2 | 1,499 | 903 | 19,498 | 21,900 | 10% | 9% | 18% | 16% |
| Shared 3+ | 0 | 0 | 7,390 | 7,390 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 5% |
| Walk | 0 | 258 | 808 | 1,066 | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Bike | 10404 | 0 | 1,067 | 11,472 | 67% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| Walk All Transit | 2,569 | 2,992 | 2,397 | 7,957 | 16% | 29% | 2% | 6% |
| Walk Premium Only | 951 | 806 | 1,241 | 2,998 | 6% | 8% | 1% | 2% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 180 | 199 | 379 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 498 | 1,320 | 1,819 | 0% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| KNR All Transit | 74 | 503 | 405 | 982 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| KNR Premium Only | 77 | 252 | 456 | 784 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 15,574 | 10,262 | 110,257 | 136,093 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 3,520 | 3,797 | 3,638 | 10,954 | 96% | 73% | 60% | 73% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 679 | 1,519 | 2,197 | 0% | 13% | 25% | 15% |
| KNR-Transit | 151 | 755 | 861 | 1,767 | 4% | 14% | 14% | 12% |
| Premium Transit | 1,027 | 1,556 | 3,017 | 5,601 | 28% | 30% | 50% | 38% |
Table 3-14d. Tour Mode Choice - Estimated Mode Shares of University Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 3,866 | 75,604 | 79,470 | 0% | 38% | 69% | 58% |
| Shared 2 | 1,496 | 905 | 19,646 | 22,047 | 10% | 9% | 18% | 16% |
| Shared 3+ | 0 | 0 | 7,191 | 7,191 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 5% |
| Walk | 0 | 112 | 685 | 797 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Bike | 10245 | 0 | 834 | 11,079 | 66% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| Walk All Transit | 2,567 | 2,997 | 2,442 | 8,006 | 16% | 29% | 2% | 6% |
| Walk Premium Only | 1,064 | 857 | 1,407 | 3,328 | 7% | 8% | 1% | 2% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 208 | 190 | 398 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 517 | 1,175 | 1,692 | 0% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| KNR All Transit | 121 | 507 | 552 | 1,180 | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
| KNR Premium Only | 81 | 293 | 531 | 905 | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 15,574 | 10,262 | 110,257 | 136,093 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 3,631 | 3,854 | 3,849 | 11,334 | 95% | 72% | 61% | 73% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 725 | 1,365 | 2,090 | 0% | 13% | 22% | 13% |
| KNR-Transit | 202 | 800 | 1,083 | 2,085 | 5% | 15% | 17% | 13% |
| Premium Transit | 1,145 | 1,667 | 3,113 | 5,925 | 30% | 31% | 49% | 38% |
Table 3-14e. Tour Mode Choice - Target Mode Shares of School Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 1,280 | 35,859 | 37,138 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Shared 2 | 3,838 | 7,782 | 146,198 | 157,818 | 11% | 8% | 15% | 14% |
| Shared 3+ | 705 | 16,429 | 253,554 | 270,688 | 2% | 17% | 26% | 25% |
| Walk | 3,504 | 3,379 | 20,504 | 27,387 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Bike | 0 | 180 | 3,616 | 3,796 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk All Transit | 529 | 611 | 949 | 2,089 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk Premium Only | 13 | 11 | 48 | 72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 10 | 66 | 97 | 173 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 2 | 8 | 115 | 125 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 26,415 | 66,978 | 507,152 | 600,544 | 75% | 69% | 52% | 55% |
| Total | 35,017 | 96,723 | 968,112 | 1,099,852 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 542 | 622 | 997 | 2,161 | 98% | 89% | 81% | 87% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| KNR-Transit | 12 | 74 | 212 | 298 | 2% | 11% | 17% | 12% |
| Premium Transit | 15 | 19 | 175 | 209 | 3% | 3% | 14% | 8% |
Table 3-14f. Tour Mode Choice - Estimated Mode Shares of School Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 854 | 35,592 | 36,446 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Shared 2 | 3,825 | 7,877 | 146,503 | 158,205 | 11% | 8% | 15% | 14% |
| Shared 3+ | 714 | 16,673 | 253,898 | 271,285 | 2% | 17% | 26% | 25% |
| Walk | 3,877 | 3,258 | 20,426 | 27,561 | 11% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Bike | 0 | 149 | 3,642 | 3,791 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk All Transit | 233 | 752 | 471 | 1,456 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk Premium Only | 1 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 8 | 56 | 36 | 100 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 62 | 62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 26,359 | 67,097 | 507,472 | 600,928 | 75% | 69% | 52% | 55% |
| Total | 35,017 | 96,723 | 968,112 | 1,099,852 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 234 | 759 | 481 | 1,474 | 97% | 93% | 83% | 90% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR-Transit | 8 | 56 | 98 | 162 | 3% | 7% | 17% | 10% |
| Premium Transit | 1 | 7 | 72 | 80 | 0% | 1% | 12% | 5% |
Table 3-14g. Tour Mode Choice - Target Mode Shares of Individual Non-Mandatory Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 62,435 | 1,089,595 | 1,152,031 | 0% | 32% | 46% | 44% |
| Shared 2 | 28,562 | 73,000 | 624,535 | 726,097 | 35% | 37% | 27% | 28% |
| Shared 3+ | 9,212 | 41,046 | 533,076 | 583,334 | 11% | 21% | 23% | 22% |
| Walk | 27,724 | 10,710 | 79,107 | 117,540 | 34% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
| Bike | 2492 | 1,083 | 11,641 | 15,216 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk All Transit | 11,735 | 4,757 | 3,214 | 19,706 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk Premium Only | 1,854 | 875 | 937 | 3,665 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 38 | 80 | 118 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 332 | 766 | 1,098 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 335 | 242 | 231 | 809 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 274 | 235 | 284 | 792 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 82,187 | 194,753 | 2,343,466 | 2,620,406 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 13,589 | 5,632 | 4,151 | 23,372 | 96% | 87% | 75% | 89% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 370 | 846 | 1,216 | 0% | 6% | 15% | 5% |
| KNR-Transit | 609 | 478 | 514 | 1,601 | 4% | 7% | 9% | 6% |
| Premium Transit | 2,127 | 1,442 | 1,986 | 5,555 | 15% | 22% | 36% | 21% |
Table 3-14h. Tour Mode Choice - Estimated Mode Shares of Individual Non-Mandatory Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 61,812 | 1,089,154 | 1,150,966 | 0% | 32% | 46% | 44% |
| Shared 2 | 28,321 | 73,060 | 624,759 | 726,140 | 34% | 38% | 27% | 28% |
| Shared 3+ | 8,998 | 41,469 | 532,717 | 583,184 | 11% | 21% | 23% | 22% |
| Walk | 27,582 | 10,586 | 79,140 | 117,308 | 34% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
| Bike | 2497 | 1,006 | 11,626 | 15,129 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk All Transit | 12,033 | 4,995 | 3,538 | 20,566 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk Premium Only | 2,272 | 983 | 881 | 4,136 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 242 | 242 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 329 | 608 | 937 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 277 | 262 | 353 | 892 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 207 | 251 | 448 | 906 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 82,187 | 194,753 | 2,343,466 | 2,620,406 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 13,589 | 5,632 | 4,151 | 23,372 | 96% | 87% | 75% | 89% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 329 | 850 | 1,179 | 0% | 5% | 14% | 4% |
| KNR-Transit | 484 | 513 | 801 | 1,798 | 3% | 8% | 13% | 6% |
| Premium Transit | 2,479 | 1,563 | 1,937 | 5,979 | 17% | 23% | 32% | 22% |
Table 3-14i. Tour Mode Choice - Target Mode Shares of Joint Non-Mandatory Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Shared 2 | 1,665 | 43,993 | 575,933 | 621,591 | 9% | 43% | 49% | 48% |
| Shared 3+ | 7,422 | 43,141 | 560,092 | 610,655 | 41% | 42% | 48% | 47% |
| Walk | 6,316 | 13,351 | 27,642 | 47,309 | 35% | 13% | 2% | 4% |
| Bike | 0 | 0 | 1,855 | 1,855 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk All Transit | 2,206 | 894 | 604 | 3,704 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk Premium Only | 475 | 224 | 240 | 939 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 12 | 25 | 36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 57 | 132 | 189 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 60 | 43 | 41 | 144 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 18,143 | 101,716 | 1,166,564 | 1,286,423 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 2,681 | 1,118 | 844 | 4,643 | 98% | 91% | 81% | 93% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 69 | 157 | 225 | 0% | 6% | 15% | 4% |
| KNR-Transit | 60 | 43 | 41 | 144 | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| Premium Transit | 475 | 281 | 372 | 1,128 | 17% | 23% | 36% | 23% |
Table 3-14j. Tour Mode Choice - Estimated Mode Shares of Joint Non-Mandatory Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Shared 2 | 1,602 | 43,418 | 576,542 | 621,562 | 9% | 43% | 49% | 48% |
| Shared 3+ | 7,430 | 43,071 | 560,018 | 610,519 | 41% | 42% | 48% | 47% |
| Walk | 6,498 | 13,886 | 27,663 | 48,047 | 36% | 14% | 2% | 4% |
| Bike | 0 | 0 | 1,643 | 1,643 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk All Transit | 2,098 | 1,119 | 459 | 3,676 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk Premium Only | 453 | 222 | 94 | 769 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 62 | 0 | 20 | 82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 18,143 | 101,716 | 1,166,564 | 1,286,423 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 2,551 | 1,341 | 553 | 4,445 | 98% | 100% | 79% | 96% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 | 0% | 0% | 18% | 3% |
| KNR-Transit | 62 | 0 | 20 | 82 | 2% | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Premium Transit | 453 | 222 | 219 | 894 | 17% | 17% | 31% | 19% |
Table 3-14k. Tour Mode Choice - Target Mode Shares of At-Work Sub-Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 10,127 | 180,553 | 190,680 | 0% | 31% | 68% | 63% |
| Shared 2 | 317 | 11,841 | 40,431 | 52,590 | 10% | 36% | 15% | 17% |
| Shared 3+ | 0 | 1,206 | 22,509 | 23,716 | 0% | 4% | 8% | 8% |
| Walk | 515 | 7,919 | 21,755 | 30,189 | 16% | 24% | 8% | 10% |
| Bike | 0 | 546 | 148 | 694 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk All Transit | 1,049 | 567 | 366 | 1,981 | 33% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk Premium Only | 1,260 | 921 | 1,575 | 3,756 | 40% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 3,142 | 33,127 | 267,337 | 303,606 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 2,310 | 1,488 | 1,940 | 5,738 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Premium Transit | 1,260 | 921 | 1,575 | 3,756 | 55% | 62% | 81% | 65% |
Table 3-14l. Tour Mode Choice - Estimated Mode Shares of At-Work Sub-Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 10,393 | 180,129 | 190,522 | 0% | 31% | 67% | 63% |
| Shared 2 | 373 | 11,994 | 40,884 | 53,251 | 12% | 36% | 15% | 18% |
| Shared 3+ | 0 | 1,338 | 22,475 | 23,813 | 0% | 4% | 8% | 8% |
| Walk | 596 | 7,806 | 22,026 | 30,428 | 19% | 24% | 8% | 10% |
| Bike | 0 | 530 | 122 | 652 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk All Transit | 995 | 404 | 337 | 1,736 | 32% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk Premium Only | 1,178 | 662 | 1,364 | 3,204 | 37% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 3,142 | 33,127 | 267,337 | 303,606 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 2,173 | 1,066 | 1,701 | 4,940 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Premium Transit | 1,178 | 662 | 1,364 | 3,204 | 54% | 62% | 80% | 65% |
Table 3-14m. Tour Mode Choice - Target Mode Shares of All Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 185,064 | 2,606,989 | 2,792,053 | 0% | 27% | 40% | 38% |
| Shared 2 | 50,249 | 221,538 | 1,671,324 | 1,943,111 | 25% | 32% | 26% | 26% |
| Shared 3+ | 20,812 | 124,327 | 1,498,063 | 1,643,202 | 10% | 18% | 23% | 22% |
| Walk | 42,666 | 39,830 | 156,613 | 239,109 | 21% | 6% | 2% | 3% |
| Bike | 12742 | 4,067 | 27,709 | 44,518 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk All Transit | 39,175 | 27,878 | 15,256 | 82,309 | 19% | 4% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk Premium Only | 8,113 | 6,870 | 7,824 | 22,807 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 714 | 1882 | 2,596 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 3,572 | 12,844 | 16,416 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 1,381 | 2,077 | 2,032 | 5,490 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 1142 | 2,319 | 2,251 | 5,712 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 26359 | 67097 | 507472 | 600928 | 13% | 10% | 8% | 8% |
| Total | 202,639 | 685,353 | 6,510,259 | 7,398,251 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 47,288 | 34,748 | 23,080 | 105,116 | 23% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 4,286 | 14,726 | 19,012 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR-Transit | 2,523 | 4,396 | 4,283 | 11,202 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Premium Transit | 9,255 | 12,761 | 22,919 | 44,935 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
Table 3-14n. Tour Mode Choice - Estimated Mode Shares of All Tours
| Mode | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total | Zero Car | Autos < Workers | Autos >= Workers | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive Alone | 0 | 10,393 | 180,129 | 190,522 | 0% | 31% | 67% | 63% |
| Shared 2 | 373 | 11,994 | 40,884 | 53,251 | 12% | 36% | 15% | 18% |
| Shared 3+ | 0 | 1,338 | 22,475 | 23,813 | 0% | 4% | 8% | 8% |
| Walk | 596 | 7,806 | 22,026 | 30,428 | 19% | 24% | 8% | 10% |
| Bike | 0 | 530 | 122 | 652 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Walk All Transit | 995 | 404 | 337 | 1,736 | 32% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Walk Premium Only | 1,178 | 662 | 1,364 | 3,204 | 37% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| PNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| PNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR All Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR Premium Only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| School Bus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 3,142 | 33,127 | 267,337 | 303,606 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Walk-Transit | 2,173 | 1,066 | 1,701 | 4,940 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| PNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| KNR-Transit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Premium Transit | 1,178 | 662 | 1,364 | 3,204 | 54% | 62% | 80% | 65% |
The trip mode choice model determines the mode used by the individual at the trip level. It uses a mode-switching framework. In essence, it computes the probability of a trip mode being chosen conditional on the tour mode. This model was calibrated to ensure the trip mode shares match by tour purpose and tour mode. Similar to the tour mode choice model, the calibration targets for the trip mode choice model use both the 2011 HTS and the 2009-2010 Transit On-Board Survey. The approach to create the trip mode choice calibration targets is similar to those already described above under tour mode choice. Note that if there were no household survey transit trips observed for a specific mode, symmetry (no mode switching) was assumed.
The base alternative for calibrating the trip mode choice model was as follows: